Gnarly Gorilla
Free Picks/Ambassador Cards/Weekend Editions/Single Packs/Memberships
Gnarly Gorilla's Sports
Report Card - NBA Edition
Date: November 24, 2025Executive Summary
The November 24, 2025 slate was a turbulent one for the books. While the Pelicans' regression to the mean provided a sharp value win, the slate was marred by significant schedule realignments and a Cavaliers collapse that busted multiple legs.Analyzed 8 plays (5 Spread/ML, 3 Props/Parlays). Total units risked: $500 (Settled bets). Net profit: -$309.09.
Overall ROI: -61.8%. We identified edges in the NOP/CHI matchup, but the "locks" in Cleveland and Dallas failed to convert.NBA Report Card
Grade: D- (1-4 record on settled bets, 20% hit rate)
Bets risked: $500 | Net: -$309.09 | League ROI: -61.8%| Game | Pick | Result | Payout (per $100 risk) || CHI @ NOP
| Pelicans -6.5 (-110)
| NOP 143-130 (Covers by 6.5)
| +$90.91| MIA @ DAL
| Mavericks -3.5 (-105)
| MIA 106-102 (DAL loses outright)
| -$100| TOR @ CLE
| Cavaliers -10 (-110)
| TOR 110-99 (CLE loses outright)
| -$100| MEM @ POR
| Grizzlies ML (+115)
| VOID - Schedule Change (MEM played DEN; POR played MIL)
| $0 (Refund)| WAS @ HOU
| Rockets -9 (-110)
| VOID - Schedule Change (HOU played PHX)
| $0 (Refund)Key Insight: The Pelicans' "buy-low" spot was textbook sharp value, with Zion Williamson (29 pts) dominating exactly as the model predicted. However, the Cavaliers' failure to defend home court against Toronto (Mitchell 17 pts on 6/20 shooting) was a statistically improbable outcome that torched the spread and parlay equity.Probable Parlays & Props Report
Grade: F (0-2 record on settled plays)
| Play
| Selection
| Analysis & Result
| Payout| 2-Leg Parlay
| CLE -10 & HOU -9 (+260)
| LOSS.
While Houston covered their actual matchup (vs PHX, 114-92), the Cavaliers' outright loss to Toronto killed the ticket immediately.
| -$100| 3-Leg Prop Parlay
| Zion > 24.5 Pts/Mitchell > 26.5 Pts/Luka > 9.5 Ast
| LOSS. Zion hit (29 Pts) easily. Mitchell fell short (17 Pts) due to poor efficiency. The parlay died on the Mitchell leg.
| -$100| Single Prop
| Ja Morant > 22.5 Pts (+100)
| VOID. Ja Morant (Calf) was ruled Out (DNP). Stake refunded.
| $0Overall Lessons & Next Steps
* Winners: The Pelicans' interior dominance hypothesis was spot on. Targeting high-pace teams (CHI) with dominant interior scorers (Zion) remains a profitable angle.* Losers: Heavy Home Favorites (CLE) can be traps when efficiency drops. Mitchell's 30% shooting night is an outlier, but trusting double-digit spreads requires better defensive consistency than Cleveland showed.* Schedule Audits: Two plays (MEM/POR, WAS/HOU) were voided due to schedule mismatches (likely rescheduled or model data lag). We will tighten the data feed validation for the next slate.Gorilla's Move: We flush the Cavs loss and double down on the model's "Big Man Mismatches" (like Zion) which are currently hitting at a high clip. Next slate drops at 9:00 AM.
Gnarly Gorilla's Sports Picks
🦍
Welcome to Gnarly Gorilla's Sports Picks: Where the Data Hits DifferentDitch the Narratives. Embrace the Edge.Tired of the talking heads, the gut feelings, and the surface-level analysis that leaves you swimming with the squares? Good. Because you've just found your way to a different kind of handicapping.Welcome to Gnarly Gorilla's Sports Picks, the only space where advanced metrics aren't a novelty—they're the foundation of every single play. We don't bet on names, jerseys, or hype trains. We bet on quantifiable value.What We Do
We go beyond the box score to dissect the numbers that actually drive mispriced lines. We analyze the market, identify the statistical anomalies, and pinpoint the moments when the oddsmakers on your three books (FanDuel, DraftKings, and Caesars) have misjudged the true probability of an outcome.* Advanced Data Focus: Leveraging metrics like DVOA (Football), BartTorvik’s Predictive Metrics (CBB), and Strokes Gained (Golf) to isolate true performance indicators from noisy results.* The Sharp-Style Mandate: Every pick is presented not as a prediction, but as an Edge Analysis—explaining precisely where the data suggests the line is mispriced and why that constitutes value.* Actionable Insights: We simplify the complex. Every analysis includes a clear, easy-to-read data table to show the core statistical comparison that underpins the pick.If your goal is to transition from recreational gambler to profitable investor, you need better information. You need an edge the public doesn't see.Stop guessing. Start calculating.
The Gnarly Gorilla is loose, and he brought his spreadsheets.
Responsible Betting & Site Policy
1. The Gnarly Gorilla's Bankroll Management GuideTo be a sharp, you must be disciplined. Bankroll management is the single most important factor that separates long-term winners from recreational bettors who flame out.We strongly adhere to the 2% Rule.The 2% Rule Explained
The 2% Rule is a strict cap on the amount of your total betting bankroll that you should ever risk on a single wager.* Bankroll: The total, pre-determined amount of money you have set aside only for sports betting—money you can afford to lose without impacting your life.* The Rule: You should never risk more than 2% of your current bankroll on any one play, regardless of how confident you feel.This protective measure is designed to absorb the inevitable losing streaks that all professional bettors experience. If you hit a 10-game losing streak (a very bad run, but possible), you would only lose about $200 of a $1,000 bankroll. If you bet $100 per game (10% of your roll), that same streak would wipe you out completely.The Unit System
At Gnarly Gorilla's, we express the recommended bet size in Units to ensure consistency and discipline across all plays:
Example:
| Your Total Bankroll | Value of 1 Unit (2%)
| $1,000 = $20 |
| $5,000 = $100 |
| $10,000 = $200 |All picks published on this site are a 1-Unit Play. Adhere to this structure to give yourself the best chance for long-term profit.2. Standard Disclaimer & Sales
PolicyNot Financial Advice
The information, analysis, and picks provided by Gnarly Gorilla's Sports Picks are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are based on our proprietary analytical methods and data interpretations. We are not licensed financial advisors, and nothing on this website should be construed as financial or investment advice. You should not treat any information on this site as a substitute for professional financial advice. All forms of gambling carry risk, and you are solely responsible for all actions and decisions you make based on our content.Sales Policy
Due to the nature of intellectual property and the instant delivery of our digital content (sports picks), all sales of subscriptions, packages, and individual picks are considered FINAL.NO REFUNDS, EXCHANGES, OR CREDITS WILL BE ISSUED.
By purchasing access to our picks, you acknowledge and agree that you are purchasing our professional analysis and opinion, not a guarantee of profit. The outcome of any sports wager is uncertain and subject to risk.We do reserve the right to cancel membership or services at any time.
Gold Members
The Gold Membership is designed for the serious bettor ready to move beyond basic analysis but who doesn't yet need the high-roller timing or proprietary research of the full VIP.The "Mid-Day Drop" Picks (Timing Edge)
Gold-Exclusive Standard Pick
The Statistical Deep Dive Lite
Market Trend Summary
Propensity Plays (Team Props Only)The Gold Value PropositionThe Gold Membership gives the user:
More Volume: An extra, high-quality pick every day.Slight Edge: Better timing and slightly deeper data than the public.
Silver Members
Silver Members get the Bronze Pack and additional analysis. Just not as in depth as VIP or Gold.
Bronze Members
Bronze Members get the full Gnarly Gorilla Breakdown of the best resources out there on the internet.January - August is NBA then MLB.
September - December is NFL ONLY.You will get the World Series & Superbowl. Along with NBA Championship.NO PRO BOWLS
NO MARCH MADNESS
Single Packs
Single Packs are 3 Games at random in any given League. Below is an example. Sometimes it will have analysis and other times not.November 28, 2025
Gnarly Gorilla's
Game of the Week
Thursday November 27, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys
Ambassador Cards
More Information Coming Soon
Jungle Juice Is Being Made
Live Scores
(NBA)
Odds Shopping