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Defense Handicapping ExampleIt's not staffing that is the issue in Indy. It is Defense and it has been a Defense issue since Tony Dungee left. Season after Season I watch Colts Defense defend WRs 3 to 4 paces off allowing catches. Every team in the NFL they have played moves the Defensive Line at-will.Since Tony Dungy retired after the 2008 season, the Indianapolis Colts' defense has shown inconsistency, often landing in the middle to lower tiers of the NFL in key metrics like points allowed. This has implications for handicapping, as top sports book authors like Billy Walters or Bob Martin emphasize evaluating defensive trends for totals betting and spread adjustments—strong defenses correlate with unders and covering as underdogs, while weaker units inflate points and make teams vulnerable in high-scoring matchups. The Colts' defensive performance has directly influenced their win-loss records, with top-10 scoring defenses typically producing double-digit wins, while bottom-10 rankings have led to losing seasons.Here's a year-by-year breakdown of the Colts' scoring defense (points allowed per season and league rank out of 32 teams), alongside the team's overall record. I've focused on scoring defense as it's a core handicapping stat for predicting game totals and defensive stops, per VSiN's approach in their betting guides, which highlight how average or below-average units like the Colts' can lead to volatile over/under lines.2009: 307 PA (8th), 14-2 record
2010: 388 PA (23rd), 10-6
2011: 430 PA (28th), 2-14
2012: 387 PA (21st), 11-5
2013: 336 PA (9th), 11-5
2014: 369 PA (19th), 11-5
2015: 408 PA (25th), 8-8
2016: 392 PA (22nd), 8-8
2017: 404 PA (30th), 4-12
2018: 344 PA (10th), 10-6
2019: 373 PA (18th), 7-9
2020: 362 PA (10th), 11-5
2021: 365 PA (9th), 9-8
2022: 427 PA (28th), 4-12-1
2023: 415 PA (28th), 9-8
2024: 427 PA (24th), 8-9
2025: 412 PA (21st), 8-9Over these 17 seasons, the Colts' average scoring defense rank is about 20th, with an average of 388 points allowed per season (roughly 22.8 PPG, adjusting for 16- vs. 17-game schedules). Total yards allowed rankings have trended similarly in recent years (e.g., 30th in 2022, 28th in 2023, 24th in 2024, 21st in 2025), indicating a unit that's solid against the run at times but vulnerable in pass coverage—key for prop bets on opposing QBs or receivers, as noted in strategies from authors like Stanford Wong.From a handicapping perspective, the post-Dungy era shows a clear pattern: When the defense ranks top-10 in points allowed (happened 5 times), the team averaged 11 wins and made the playoffs 80% of the time, making them reliable favorites in home games or against weaker offenses. In bottom-10 seasons (6 times), they averaged just 5.5 wins, often failing to cover spreads as underdogs and pushing overs due to shootouts. Recent years (2022-2025) have been middling to poor, with ranks 21st-28th, contributing to .500-ish records and suggesting value in fading the Colts in high-total games or betting opponent team totals over.VSiN's 2025 AFC South preview highlights the Colts' defense as improving but still a work in progress: Strengths include a solid front seven led by DeForest Buckner for run stuffing, but weaknesses in the secondary (23rd in dropback EPA allowed last year) could lead to exploitable pass games. They see potential for maturation with young talent and new coordinator Lou Anarumo, positioning the Colts as a dark horse for over 7.5 wins if the defense gels—aligning with sharp money approaches that bet on defensive upside in divisional unders.This chart visualizes the fluctuations—notice the peaks in poor performance around rebuild years (e.g., 2011, 2017, 2022) and dips into elite territory during playoff pushes. For picks, I'd lean on VSiN-style analysis: Monitor secondary injuries for over bets, and consider the defense's run-stopping as a fade against pass-heavy teams.🦍 Gnarly Gorilla
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Welcome to Gnarly Gorilla's Sports Picks: Where the Data Hits DifferentDitch the Narratives. Embrace the Edge.Tired of the talking heads, the gut feelings, and the surface-level analysis that leaves you swimming with the squares? Good. Because you've just found your way to a different kind of handicapping.Welcome to Gnarly Gorilla's Sports Picks, the only space where advanced metrics aren't a novelty—they're the foundation of every single play. We don't bet on names, jerseys, or hype trains. We bet on quantifiable value.What We Do
We go beyond the box score to dissect the numbers that actually drive mispriced lines. We analyze the market, identify the statistical anomalies, and pinpoint the moments when the oddsmakers on your three books (FanDuel, DraftKings, and Caesars) have misjudged the true probability of an outcome.* Advanced Data Focus: Leveraging metrics like DVOA (Football), BartTorvik’s Predictive Metrics (CBB), and Strokes Gained (Golf) to isolate true performance indicators from noisy results.* The Sharp-Style Mandate: Every pick is presented not as a prediction, but as an Edge Analysis—explaining precisely where the data suggests the line is mispriced and why that constitutes value.* Actionable Insights: We simplify the complex. Every analysis includes a clear, easy-to-read data table to show the core statistical comparison that underpins the pick.If your goal is to transition from recreational gambler to profitable investor, you need better information. You need an edge the public doesn't see.Stop guessing. Start calculating.
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1. The Gnarly Gorilla's Bankroll Management GuideTo be a sharp, you must be disciplined. Bankroll management is the single most important factor that separates long-term winners from recreational bettors who flame out.We strongly adhere to the 2% Rule.The 2% Rule Explained
The 2% Rule is a strict cap on the amount of your total betting bankroll that you should ever risk on a single wager.* Bankroll: The total, pre-determined amount of money you have set aside only for sports betting—money you can afford to lose without impacting your life.* The Rule: You should never risk more than 2% of your current bankroll on any one play, regardless of how confident you feel.This protective measure is designed to absorb the inevitable losing streaks that all professional bettors experience. If you hit a 10-game losing streak (a very bad run, but possible), you would only lose about $200 of a $1,000 bankroll. If you bet $100 per game (10% of your roll), that same streak would wipe you out completely.The Unit System
At Gnarly Gorilla's, we express the recommended bet size in Units to ensure consistency and discipline across all plays:
Example:
| Your Total Bankroll | Value of 1 Unit (2%)
| $1,000 = $20 |
| $5,000 = $100 |
| $10,000 = $200 |All picks published on this site are a 1-Unit Play. Adhere to this structure to give yourself the best chance for long-term profit.2. Standard Disclaimer & Sales
PolicyNot Financial Advice
The information, analysis, and picks provided by Gnarly Gorilla's Sports Picks are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are based on our proprietary analytical methods and data interpretations. We are not licensed financial advisors, and nothing on this website should be construed as financial or investment advice. You should not treat any information on this site as a substitute for professional financial advice. All forms of gambling carry risk, and you are solely responsible for all actions and decisions you make based on our content.Sales Policy
Due to the nature of intellectual property and the instant delivery of our digital content (sports picks), all sales of subscriptions, packages, and individual picks are considered FINAL.NO REFUNDS, EXCHANGES, OR CREDITS WILL BE ISSUED.
By purchasing access to our picks, you acknowledge and agree that you are purchasing our professional analysis and opinion, not a guarantee of profit. The outcome of any sports wager is uncertain and subject to risk.We do reserve the right to cancel membership or services at any time.
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Single Packs are 3 Games at random in any given League. Below is an example. Sometimes it will have analysis and other times it will not.December 01, 2025
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys
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